UnskewedPolls.com has done a great job of filtering through the propaganda that the Ministry of Truth has cooked into polls this election. The most recent electoral map over there shows a Romney win at 301 EVS to just 237 for Obama. That’s a 64-EV margin of victory.
I’ve always thought that Romney will win by between 70-80 EVs…and possibly over 100. So I think UnskewedPolls is a little too hesitant here.
The two big changes I’d make to their map are:
* Romney takes one EV in Maine, because Maine splits things by Congressional district and I believe Romney takes one of Maine’s 3 EVs this way.
* Romney wins New Mexico…which is going on a limb somewhat because this is a state that normally votes Democrat, but I think Governor Susana Martinez personally wins the state for Romney. She’s campaigning hard for him, is a dynamic person, and I believe the state’s fallen in love with her. I know I sure loved her speech at the Republican convention and expect big things from her in the future. I think she delivers for Romney.
* This would bring Romney’s EV total up to 307, versus Obama’s 230…for a difference of 70 EVs between them. Realistically, this is how big I think the win is going to be…barring a true cataclysm for Democrats where they lose Pennsylvania and Michigan.
I don’t think it’s possible for Obama to lose Pennsylvania and not lose Michigan too…so I think he either keeps both, or loses both. These are the only two states I see as toss-ups right now…
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