One, Mitt Romney has a consistent, significant lead among independent voters, which increasingly looks like a double-digit lead. This is especially clear in national polls, but can also be seen in the key swing state polls. It’s been a hard enough number for the past few weeks now, even as the last of the debates gets baked into the polls, that there’s little chance that Obama can turn it around in the 11 days remaining in this race. In fact, Obama has been underwater with independents almost continuously since the middle of 2009.
Two, to overcome losing independents by more than a few points, Obama needs to have a decisive advantage in Democratic turnout, roughly on the order of – or in some places exceeding – the advantage he enjoyed in 2008, when Democrats nationally had a 7-point advantage (39-32). Yet nearly every indicator we have of turnout suggests that, relative to Republicans, the Democrats are behind where they were in 2008. Surveys by the two largest professional pollsters, Rasmussen and Gallup, actually suggest that Republicans will have a turnout advantage, which has happened only once (in the 2002 midterms) in the history of exit polling and probably hasn’t happened in a presidential election year since the 1920s.
Those two facts alone caused me to conclude at the end of last week that Obama will lose – perhaps lose a very close race, but lose just the same. That conclusion is only underscored by the fact that, historically, there is little reason to believe that the remaining undecided voters will break for an incumbent in tough economic times. He will lose the natio
My mother, always told me to think healthy thoughts and clean up your head.
I don't know a thing about this website or its methodology. I like seeing the red. I just hope it's a wise and healthy application of color.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Racial attitudes have not improved in the four years since the United States elected its first black president, an Associated Press poll finds, as a slight majority of Americans now express prejudice toward blacks whether they recognize those feelings or not.
Those views could cost President Barack Obama votes as he tries for re-election, the survey found, though the effects are mitigated by some people's more favorable views of blacks.
Racial prejudice has increased slightly since 2008 whether those feelings were measured using questions that explicitly asked respondents about racist attitudes, or through an experimental test that measured implicit views toward race without asking questions about that topic directly.
In all, 51 percent of Americans now express explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey. When measured by an implicit racial attitudes test, the number of Americans with anti-black sentiments jumped to 56 percent, up from 49 percent during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell.
McAreavy holds a personal grudge against the president that dates back to 2008, when she hosted Obama's supporters for three weeks in the Midwestern state that nurtured his improbable White House dreams.
She never got a thank you note for her small role in helping land Obama in the White House, but McAreavy's antagonism goes deeper, the product of broken promises and accumulated disillusion with the "hope" promised by the man who has billed himself an "adopted son" of Iowa.
"Obama gave us this 'no red, no blue state' America," said McAreavy, 78.
"I was fooled, I kick myself everyday," she said. "I said: 'In four years I'll get you buddy -- and I'm going to.'"
"The black and white spot features local kids and an original song (lyrics by Goodby, art direction by Silverstein) that provides a sobering look 'at what our children will say about us and how we left the world for them.' And it’s not always pretty," Carla Marinucci wrote.
The video is featured at the Future Children Project web site with a caption that reads: "Re-electing President Obama is a momentous decision that will require every single voter."
That might be true. Certainly a lot of Republicans think so.
But what is the mainstream media’s excuse for cautiously engaging the president on Libya? Aren’t we supposed to be watchdogs? The ongoing story is story focused on whether the Obama administration provided, or refused to provide, adequate protection for the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya when it faced the threat of attack on Sept. 11. The attack left the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans dead. Subsequent conflicting accounts coming from the administration on how the White House responded, or didn’t respond, are tailor-made for a full-blown media feeding frenzy.
Yet, the so-called media watchdogs so far have been mostly toothless.
1. Jobs not being created
Don’t let the official 7.8 percent unemployment rate for September fool you; work-force participation is at a record low and 23 million American are looking for work. Ten times as many people have dropped out of the work force during Obama’s term than have found a job. His last attempt at helping the unemployed—the 2009 stimulus package—cost nearly a trillion dollars with minimal impact on creating actual jobs.
2. Debt crisis spiraling
Under Obama, the nation has accumulated nearly $6 trillion in debt over four years and a second term would likely add more. The cost of financing the national debt will quickly skyrocket as interest rates rise. Obama’s only plan to staunch the bleeding is to tax the rich. But even if he succeeds in letting the Bush tax cuts expire for families with incomes over $250,000, the annual deficit of $1.2 trillion would only fall to $1.12 trillion.
3. Obamacare outrages
Obama’s signature achievement—the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act—is more unpopular today than it was when he signed it into law. Obamacare adds to the deficit, while raising taxes on Americans of all stripes, even while harming job creation. Many families will lose their current health care coverage and surveys of doctors show many will flee the profession.
On Thursday, we reported that President Obama told Rolling Stone's Douglas Brinkley that children look at Romney and say, "Well, that's a bullsh****r, I can tell."
"Mr. President, you've called for more civility in our nation's political conversation - and much has obviously been made about the tone of this race. In a recent interview with Rolling Stone, you called Governor Romney a 'bullsh****r.' What did you mean and why did you choose that word?" Clark asked.
"You know, this was a conversation after an interview, a casual conversation with a reporter," an uncomfortable Obama began.